中原期货晨会纪要-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest price data of various commodities, including chemical and agricultural products, and conducts a fundamental analysis of each commodity, providing corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings [4][11]. - It also covers macro - news such as real - estate policies, geopolitical events, and industrial developments, which may impact the financial market [6]. - In the financial sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index options and major stock indexes, giving investment suggestions based on market trends and regulatory policies [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On January 22, 2026, among chemical products, asphalt had the highest increase of 2.217%, while coke had the largest decrease of 0.743% [4]. Agricultural Products - On January 22, 2026, among agricultural products, palm oil had the highest increase of 0.974%, and corn starch had the largest decrease of 0.314% [4]. Macro - News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will focus on promoting high - quality real - estate development, including building "good houses" and establishing a new real - estate development model, and promoting the spot - sale system for commercial housing [6]. - The US - Greenland issue has a new development. Trump reached an agreement framework with NATO Secretary - General Rutt, and the planned tariff measures will not be implemented, which affects the US stock and silver markets [6]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun pointed out that AI has initiated large - scale infrastructure construction, and AI will create high - value jobs [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to avoid protectionism regarding the EU's new network security policy [7]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance will set up new duty - free shops at 41 ports, and横琴Port duty - free shop allows Macau residents to buy up to 15,000 yuan of duty - free goods [7]. - The tax policy for innovative enterprise CDRs will be extended to December 31, 2027 [7]. - The Ministry of Finance will address the issue of abnormally low prices in government procurement starting from February 1, 2026 [7]. - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use around February 5, 2026, and a commercial liquid rocket will conduct a launch and recovery test during the Spring Festival [8]. - In 2025, China's AI core industry scale is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and the 6G second - stage technical test has been launched [8]. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - Sugar: The supply pressure is high, but the price is near the cost line, and it is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term [11]. - Corn: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand support is weak, and it is in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Peanuts: The supply and demand are in a game, and the price may be stable in the short term. High - selling and low - buying within the 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton range can be considered [11]. - Pigs: The supply is loose, the demand boost is limited, and the futures market is bearish [11]. - Eggs: The supply is increasing, the demand is slow, but the Spring Festival consumption provides support, and the futures market is bullish [12]. - Red dates: The market is expected to enter a peak sales period during the festival, and short - selling after a rebound can be considered [12]. - Cotton: The supply is expected to tighten, but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level around 14,500 yuan, and waiting and seeing or range operation is recommended [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The market price is weak, the supply is excessive, and a bearish approach is recommended [12]. - Coking coal and coke: The port inventory is high, the downstream replenishment slows down, and they are expected to oscillate within a range [13]. - Logs: The demand is recovering marginally, but the overall supply - demand is weak. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [13]. - Pulp: The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Waiting and seeing or short - selling at high prices is recommended [13]. - Offset printing paper: The supply is abundant, the demand is low, and it is in a weak balance. Waiting and seeing or short - selling at high prices is recommended [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and aluminum: Overseas macro - sentiment cools down, and they continue to consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - Alumina: The supply is excessive, and the price is low [18]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The fundamentals are under pressure in the off - season, and they are expected to oscillate within a range [18]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The black series is weak, but the raw material cost is firm. A short - term long - buying approach is recommended [21]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply is expected to shrink, the demand is strong, and low - buying on dips can be considered [21]. Option Finance - Stock index options: The performance of different stock index options varies. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the rise and fall of the underlying [23]. - Stock indexes: The index trend is differentiated. For profitable positions, partial profit - taking can be considered. Wait for the index to adjust before making investments [26].