中辉有色观点-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Lead: Weak ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues such as Trump's statements and European geopolitical problems, as well as the Fed's independence, affect the prices of precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value, while short - term fluctuations are affected by various events. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but is currently affected by the off - season and inventory accumulation. Zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are under short - term pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and off - season consumption. Industrial silicon and polysilicon may have short - term rebounds. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish due to supply - side disturbances [1][6][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Key Data: SHFE gold rose 3.85% to 1092.3, COMEX gold rose 1.41% to 4836. SHFE silver fell 0.25% to 23131, COMEX silver fell 1.59% to 93. The gold - silver ratio increased. Gold ETF decreased by 4 tons to 1077.66 tons, and gold COMEX net long increased by 23606 to 251238. Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16166 tons, and silver COMEX net long increased by 2789 to 32060 [2]. - Market Situation: Trump's inconsistent statements led to a short - term decline in gold after reaching a new high, and silver once tumbled nearly 5%. Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. The long - term logic for gold and silver remains bullish, with short - term support at 1040 for domestic gold and 21000 for domestic silver [2][3][4]. Copper - Key Data: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was flat at 100420 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.27% to 12762 dollars/ton. The trading volume of SHFE copper main contract increased by 31%, and the inventory increased significantly. The social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons to 32.94 million tons [5]. - Market Situation: BHP slightly increased its 2026 fiscal - year copper production guidance. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Copper is in short - term high - level consolidation, and the long - term supply - demand logic remains positive. However, it is currently the off - season, and inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to take profits for existing long positions and wait for a full correction for new entries. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [99000, 102000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [6][7]. Zinc - Key Data: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract rose 0.43% to 24300 yuan/ton, LME zinc was flat at 3175 dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 2.12%, and the inventory increased by 6518 tons on a weekly basis [8]. - Market Situation: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production is uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to wait for more macro - level guidance and for enterprises to actively arrange selling hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [24000, 24500] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3150, 3200] dollars/ton [9][10]. Aluminum - Key Data: The closing price of LME aluminum fell 0.03% to 3117.5 dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86% to 24155 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.01% to 507175 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.24% to 185879 tons on a weekly basis [11]. - Market Situation: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream start - up rate is differentiated. Alumina production capacity is high, and the market surplus continues. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, with the main operation range of [23000 - 25000] yuan/ton [13][14]. Nickel - Key Data: The closing price of LME nickel rose 1.21% to 17975 dollars/ton, SHFE nickel rose 1.14% to 143170 yuan/ton. Stainless steel main contract rose 2.61% to 14720 yuan/ton. SMM pure nickel social inventory increased by 4.04% to 63510 tons, and SMM stainless steel social inventory decreased by 1.28% to 843700 tons [15]. - Market Situation: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia significantly reduced its 2026 nickel ore production target, and some mines may face fines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, with the main operation range of [133000 - 151000] yuan/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - Key Data: The main contract LC2605 rose 3.89% to 166740 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. Spot prices of lithium - related products generally rose, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.82% to 24510 tons, while the inventory decreased by 0.24% to 109679 tons [19]. - Market Situation: Affected by the news of canceling the export tax rebate for lithium batteries, it rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants have high production enthusiasm, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [164000 - 175000] yuan/ton [21][22].