NMHD(SH:600863) HTSC·2026-01-22 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 5.55 [7]. Core Views - The company is considered a robust high-dividend stock with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% since 2018, and projected dividend yields of 4.5% and 4.8% for 2025E and 2026E, respectively [1][16]. - Concerns regarding the risk of declining coal power electricity prices are addressed, with the report suggesting that the company's asset resilience and potential for "capacity replacement" in high-energy-consuming small units will enhance profitability [1][4]. - The report forecasts a 7.2% year-on-year increase in attributable net profit for 2026, supported by relatively stable electricity prices [2][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a key player in coal-electricity integration in Inner Mongolia, under the Huaneng Group, with a focus on maintaining high dividend payouts and stable profitability [21][24]. Financial Performance - The projected attributable net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 27.02 billion, RMB 28.95 billion, and RMB 29.63 billion, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment of 15.8%, 12.5%, and 8.2% from previous estimates [6][49]. - The report anticipates a slight increase in the coal power on-grid electricity price in Inner Mongolia by 0.2 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2026, despite expected declines in other regions [2][17]. Profitability and Risks - The company's exposure to coal price fluctuations is relatively low, with projected equity coal demand exposure of 32%, 17%, and 16% for 2025-2027, indicating a stable operational environment [3][18]. - The report highlights the potential for profitability enhancement through the restoration of coal quality at the Weijia Mine, expected to contribute an additional RMB 180 million to net profit [4][19]. Market Position and Strategic Moves - The acquisition of wind power assets is expected to enhance shareholder returns, with projected increases in EPS and dividend yield post-acquisition [5][20]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the integration of wind power assets, which are expected to deliver high returns on equity and contribute positively to overall profitability [4][20].