第一上海证券FirstCall策略

Market Performance - As of the beginning of 2026, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.13%, the S&P 500 by 1.43%, and the Russell 2000 by 7.96%[5] - The VIX index decreased by 26.8%, indicating reduced market volatility[5] - There is a strong expectation of significant market fluctuations in the second half of the year, with a focus on small-cap stocks driven by policy and macroeconomic factors[5] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate shows significant structural differentiation among ethnic groups, with the highest slope for Black individuals, moderate for Hispanic, and stability for White individuals[5] - Job losses are notably present in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and manufacturing, with the gig economy impacting Black workers the most[5] - A potential economic recovery may occur when interest rates begin to decline, with Black and Hispanic employment likely to recover before White employment[5] Sector Insights - The electricity sector saw a 13% increase in U.S. electricity prices last year, with ongoing affordability concerns linked to electoral outcomes[6] - The nuclear power sector is expected to experience significant growth due to policy changes and increased demand for long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs)[6] - The metals sector is facing short-term corrections due to tariff fears, but long-term demand for strategic resources remains strong[6] AI and Technology - The storage sector is identified as having the highest certainty for growth, driven by advancements in AI and hardware architecture[6] - The valuation reconstruction in the AI infrastructure space is expected to yield high returns, with a focus on overcoming supply constraints[6]