中辉农产品观点-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Consider the pre - Spring Festival stocking and the fact that the negative impact of Brazilian soybean listing is basically realized. Be cautious about short - selling operations. Pay attention to the weather in South America [1][2][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. With the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure will be greatly relieved. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude with a bullish view [1][6][7]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound. The recent export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the growth rate has declined. Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened the bullish sentiment. Be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][9][10]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, and the pre - festival stocking has led to good spot transactions. If the data from the palm oil side continues to improve, short - term long opportunities at low prices can be considered [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term oscillation. Although the tariff reduction is not directly targeted at rapeseed oil, the reduction of rapeseed import tariffs will ease the long - term supply. The current high basis limits the downward space, so it may be in a weak oscillation [1]. - Cotton: Oscillation adjustment. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market. The US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, the new cotton processing is basically completed, the sales progress has slowed down, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term is expected to be weak, but there may be a recovery in the medium and long term [1][12][14]. - Red Dates: Short - term rebound. With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the high - inventory de - stocking is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in the general context of loose supply and demand, it is mainly a bearish rebound [1][15][16]. - Live Pigs: Be vigilant about callbacks. As the end of January approaches, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing. The demand is also changing. Both near - term and far - term contracts are under pressure [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 7.721 billion tons, a decrease of 307,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.8733 billion tons, a decrease of 257,900 tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 947,200 tons, a decrease of 96,800 tons from last week [3]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 2,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3187.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86 yuan or 0.09% [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, all remaining unchanged from last week [7]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2,228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.47 yuan or 0.39% [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons or 1.37% from last week [10]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,832 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan or 0.96% from the previous day; the national average price was 8880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.91% [8]. 3.4 Cotton - Inventory: The national commercial cotton inventory rose to 5.69 million tons, about 380,000 tons higher than the same period last year [13]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,819 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan or 0.23% [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, but 3,737 tons higher than the same period last year [16]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day; the spot prices of various regions were basically unchanged [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Inventory and Slaughter: The national sample enterprise's live - pig inventory was 3.84775 million tons, a decrease of 8,570 tons from last month; the slaughter volume was 1.23309 million heads, an increase of 45,090 heads or 3.80% [17]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract Ih2603 was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 12,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan or 1.74% [17].