中辉黑色观点-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Demand rebounds month-on-month, production and inventory are generally flat. Profits are okay, but production increase is unlikely due to the off-season. Iron production drops slightly, and high raw material prices dampen restocking enthusiasm. Steel supply-demand contradictions are limited, with weak macro drivers. It will generally move in a range, and may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory decreases slightly but remains high, and the destocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will move in a range in the medium term and may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: This period sees a decline in both arrivals and shipments of foreign mines. After the price drop, some steel enterprises show purchasing interest, driving the price up temporarily [1][6][7] - Coke: The first round of price hikes is blocked. Some coke enterprises halt shipments to customers who haven't reached an agreement. Rising raw coal prices deepen losses, but short-term production enthusiasm is okay. Supply decreases slightly month-on-month. Iron production drops slightly, and downstream restocking improves slightly. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline and should be viewed within a range [1][8][9] - Coking Coal: Previously shut-down mines are resuming production, increasing supply significantly. Port clearance has returned to the same period's high. Spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. The fundamentals remain unchanged. Short-term attention should be paid to whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [1][11][12] - Ferromanganese: Regional supply decreases month-on-month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains high. New steel tenders are ongoing, with most tender prices between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton. A leading steel mill's final price is 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to move in a range in the short term [1][14][15] - Ferrosilicon: Main production areas' supply increases month-on-month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases. New steel tenders are ongoing, and a leading steel mill's final price is 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to move in a range in the short term [1][14][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - Price and Spread Data: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices show different changes in various contracts. Spot prices of rebar in multiple regions drop by 10 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil spot prices in some regions remain unchanged. Basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads also have corresponding changes [2] - Outlook: Steel products will move in a medium-term range. Rebar and hot-rolled coil may be boosted in the short term by stricter safety production expectations [3][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - Price Movement: The decline in arrivals and shipments of foreign mines and subsequent restocking drive the price up [6][7] - Investment Rating: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.3 Coke - Market Data: Futures prices of different coke contracts increase, while basis decreases. Spot prices remain unchanged. Production and inventory data show slight changes in capacity utilization, output, and inventory [8] - Market Situation: The first round of price hikes is blocked, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9] - Investment Rating: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.4 Coking Coal - Market Data: Futures prices of different coking coal contracts change slightly, and basis also has some fluctuations. Spot prices remain unchanged. Production and inventory data show changes in开工率, output, and inventory [11] - Market Situation: Mines are resuming production, increasing supply. Attention should be paid to safety inspections [12] - Investment Rating: Cautiously Bullish [1] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price and Spread Data: Futures prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon contracts show different changes. Spot prices of ferromanganese remain unchanged, and ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia rises by 30 yuan/ton. Basis, spreads, and production and inventory data also change [14] - Market Situation: New steel tenders are ongoing, and prices are rising. They are expected to move in a range in the short term [15][16] - Investment Rating: Cautiously Bullish [1]