中辉能化观点-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish rebound [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude Oil: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - LPG: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - L: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - PP: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - PVC: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - PX/PTA: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - MEG: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - Methanol: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - Urea: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - Natural Gas: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - Asphalt: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - Glass: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - Soda Ash: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - Basic Logic: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - Market Review: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - Basic Logic: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - Market Review: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - Market Review: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - Basic Logic: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - Market Review: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - Basic Logic: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - Market Review: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - Basic Logic: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - Market Review: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - Basic Logic: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - Market Review: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - Basic Logic: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - Strategy Recommendation: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - Market Review: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - Basic Logic: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - Strategy Recommendation: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - Market Review: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - Basic Logic: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - Market Review: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - Basic Logic: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - Strategy Recommendation: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - Market Review: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - Basic Logic: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - Basic Logic: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].