铁矿石：需求驱动趋弱价格偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but with high year - on - year growth, price height is restricted by industrial chain profits, the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. [3] - The operation strategy is range trading and covered call options. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the off - season characteristics of the black series are obvious and the macro - expectations are weak. Iron ore is affected by the expected increase in supply and the decrease in demand due to sudden safety incidents. Coupled with the weakening of restocking demand, the price has fallen from a high level. [2] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have entered the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for three consecutive weeks, and before mid - February, they will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. The supply side is in a seasonally contracting phase, but the supply support needs to decline more than expected to increase. As of January 19, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7 million tons. The shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons. [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined slightly but is still at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown a more - than - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, and restocking demand is in the middle stage with a weakening marginal support. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further strengthening safety supervision. [2] Inventory - Steel mill - end imported ore inventory has risen for four consecutive weeks. The pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, and the restocking support is weakening. Port inventory is still accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume. It is expected that with the decline in arrival volume and the increase in restocking demand, the pressure of port inventory accumulation will ease. [2]