申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the recovery of the economy, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform will continue in 2026, pushing up the prices of commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the daily increase ranging from 0.35% to 0.49%. The trading volume of the IF next - month contract was 74,116.00, and the open interest decreased by 6,123.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The prices of IH contracts showed mixed trends, with the daily change ranging from - 0.07% to 0.08%. The trading volume of the IH next - month contract was 34,230.00, and the open interest increased by 1,743.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The prices of IC contracts increased significantly, with the daily increase ranging from 1.79% to 2.03%. The trading volume of the IC next - month contract was 101,832.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,994.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The prices of IM contracts also increased, with the daily increase ranging from 1.55% to 1.81%. The trading volume of the IM next - month contract was 133,027.00, and the open interest decreased by 6,631.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of - 1.40, 3.80, - 2.20, and - 29.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.09%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.11%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.79% [1]. - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the raw materials industry increased by 1.51%, the information technology industry increased by 2.91%, while the energy industry decreased by 0.66%, the optional consumption industry decreased by 0.88%, the main consumption industry decreased by 1.61%, the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry decreased by 0.67%, the real estate and finance industry decreased by 1.27%, and the public utilities industry decreased by 1.25% [1]. 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot for different contracts changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 index increased from - 8.28 to 1.13 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.70%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54% [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.37%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.16%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.51% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to promote the construction of "good houses" and build a new real - estate development model, and promote the spot - sale system for commercial housing [2]. - The US and NATO reached an agreement framework on the Greenland issue, and the US will not implement the originally planned tariff measures, which led to a sharp rise in US stocks and a decline in spot silver [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to avoid protectionism and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance announced the establishment of new duty - free shops at 41 ports, and residents entering from Macau can purchase duty - free goods worth up to 15,000 RMB at the Hengqin Port [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Finance extended the tax policies for innovative enterprise CDRs until December 31, 2027, with preferential tax policies for individual investors and public funds [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use, and a mainstream commercial liquid rocket will conduct a launch and recovery test around the Spring Festival [2]. - In 2025, China's commercial space industry developed rapidly, with 50 launches accounting for 54% of the total number of space launches in the country, including 25 launches of commercial launch vehicles. A total of 311 commercial satellites were put into orbit, accounting for 84% of the total number of satellites put into orbit in the country [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expects that the core scale of China's artificial intelligence industry will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and has launched the second - stage technology test of 6G. It will strengthen the support of the national artificial intelligence industry investment fund for humanoid robots [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised and issued two review requirements to strengthen the access management of road motor vehicle production enterprises and products [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - US stock indexes rose. In the previous trading day, stock indexes were divided, with the non - ferrous metals sector leading the rise and the banking sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.62 trillion yuan. On January 20, the margin trading balance decreased by 13.912 billion yuan to 2.69202 trillion yuan [2].