多极化世界格局逐步演变

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious and bullish: Index (IH), Index (IF), Index (IC), Index (IN), Rubber, Hot Roll, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Aluminum, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Corn [6] - Cautious and bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Apple, Container Shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market in 2026 is expected to continue its upward trend due to the continuous supply - side reform, the release of policy effects, the strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous allocation of overseas funds to Chinese assets [12] - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, easing inflation pressure in the US, and expected interest rate cuts by the Fed [4][5][21] - The price of crude oil may be affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand balance, with an expected increase in demand in the future [2][15] - The price of carbonate lithium is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall under the logic of downstream low inventory and long - term bullish lithium prices [3][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The US has officially withdrawn from the WHO. Denmark refuses to negotiate on the sovereignty of Greenland with the US. Putin will meet with the US presidential envoy and is willing to pay $1 billion to join the "Peace Committee" from frozen assets in the US [1][8] 3.1.2 Domestic News - In 2025, Shanghai's GDP reached 5670.871 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.4%, ranking fifth among global cities [9] 3.1.3 Industry News - In 2025, China's artificial intelligence core industry scale is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and the 6G second - stage technical test has been launched [10] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - S&P 500 rose 1.16%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 2.06%, London gold rose 1.47%, while European STOXX 50 fell 0.32%, London silver fell 1.51% [11] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Index: The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. It has shifted from valuation expansion to profit - driven [12] - Treasury Bond: The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, affected by factors such as central bank policies, market risk appetite, and economic data [13][14] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC night session rose 1.22%. Geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has decreased, and the supply is expected to increase in the short term [2][15] - Methanol: Methanol night session rose 0.41%. The overall coastal methanol inventory has decreased slightly. Short - term bullish, but need to pay attention to the situation in Iran [16] - Natural Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, supported by supply and demand factors [17] - Polyolefin: Polyolefin futures may fluctuate in the short term, affected by supply expectations and crude oil prices [18][19] - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass and soda ash futures have declined. The market focuses on the recovery of the real estate industry chain and supply - side contraction [20] 3.3.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Gold continues to rebound, and silver rises first and then falls. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [4][5][21] - Copper: The copper price may experience a phased correction after the release of optimistic sentiment [22] - Zinc: The zinc price may also have a phased correction after the release of optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market [23] - Aluminum: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the low inventory and supply constraints provide support for the aluminum price in the long term [24] - Carbonate Lithium: The carbonate lithium price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, but investors should be cautious [3][25] 3.3.4 Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The decline of the double - coking futures is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - making output, and downstream replenishment [26] - Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a weak supply - demand situation and narrowing inventory decline [27] - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [28] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal is under pressure due to the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and high domestic inventory [29][30] - Edible Oil: The palm oil price is supported, while the rapeseed oil price may be suppressed in the future [31] - Sugar: The sugar price is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal supply pressure [32] - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term, and investors can consider buying at low prices [33] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34]