20260122申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260122

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The polyolefin futures closed with a negative line and rebounded at night. Sinopec and PetroChina kept the prices of linear LL and drawn PP stable. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the macro - to - commodity transmission has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost end. However, the short - term shock of crude oil after the rebound has an impact on chemicals. Polyolefin may experience short - term shocks after continuous rebounds [2] Group 3: Futures Market Summary Price and Volume - For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6720, 6666, and 6694 respectively, with price increases of 14, 26, and 30, and increases of 0.21%, 0.39%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volumes were 40, 374602, and 16431 respectively, and the open interests were 88, 504362, and 52481 respectively, with changes of 17, 9150, and 1432 respectively [2] - For drawn PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6493, 6485, and 6519 respectively, with price increases of 34, 24, and 27, and increases of 0.53%, 0.37%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes were 211, 291242, and 17041 respectively, and the open interests were 644, 468323, and 85636 respectively, with changes of 58, 2082, and - 349 respectively [2] Spread - For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 54, - 28, and - 26 respectively, compared with the previous values of 66, - 24, and - 42 [2] - For drawn PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 8, - 34, and 26 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 2, - 31, and 33 [2] Group 4: Spot Market Summary Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products - The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2208 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, 602 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6270 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some slight changes compared to the previous values [2] Middle - stream Products - The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2] Group 5: News - On Wednesday (January 21), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.62 per barrel, up $0.26 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.22 - $60.89. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.24 per barrel, up $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.61 - $65.41 [2]