油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Malaysia Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the crude palm oil price in February to fluctuate between 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit per ton (US$986.32 - 1,060.29) due to seasonal supply constraints and fundamental changes [3] - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, with a 16.49% decrease in yield and a 0.08% increase in oil extraction rate [3] - Brazilian soybean harvest rate as of January 17 was 2.3%, higher than last week and last year, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest, while good US domestic crushing data provides support for US soybean prices [3] - Night - trading of oils and fats was strong. Strong exports and lower production in Malaysia, along with tariff cuts, support palm oil prices. Concerns over Indonesian production and the seasonal production decline also contribute to the strength of palm oil. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3] - Domestic soybean supply will be gradually released through state - reserve auctions, and high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest will continue to put pressure on prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8,044, 8,832, 8,947, 2,725, 2,377, and 8,844 respectively. The price changes were 12, 84, - 1, - 11, 6, and 26, with percentage changes of 0.15%, 0.96%, - 3.15%, - 0.40%, 0.25%, and 0.29% respectively [2] - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as Y9 - 1 at - 364 (previous - 390), P9 - 1 at 62 (previous - 26), etc [2] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,065 ringgit/ton, 1,053.00 cents/bushel, 52.52 cents/pound, and 291.50 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 32.0, - 3.3, 0.0, and 1.6, with percentage changes of 0.79%, - 0.31%, 0.02%, and 0.55% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - Spot Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8,580 and 8,620 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12% and 0.00% [2] - Spot Basis: The spot basis of different products varies, such as 536 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and 18 for Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil [2] - Spot Spreads: The current spot spreads of different product combinations have changed compared to the previous values, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil at - 150 (same as before) [2] Import and Profit - The current import profit values of different products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195 (previous - 237) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,985, 1,148, 1,864, 32,440, 59, and 0 respectively. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased from 1,935 to 1,864, and the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 84 to 59 [2]