GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-01-22 03:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [5] Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a significant increase in retail value for FY2026Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, indicating a strong acceleration compared to Q2. Retail values in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 16.9%, 22.9%, and other respective figures [1] - The company is actively optimizing its product and channel strategies, with a focus on enhancing store performance and e-commerce growth. The same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4% for direct stores and 26.3% for franchise stores [1][2] - The e-commerce segment saw a robust growth of 25.3%, driven by promotional events and successful IP collaborations, contributing to 7.4% of mainland retail value and 17.0% of sales volume [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026, Chow Tai Fook is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.8% to HKD 93.03 billion, with a net profit growth of 28.1% to HKD 7.575 billion. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is HKD 0.77 [2][4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.575 billion, HKD 8.559 billion, and HKD 9.646 billion, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for FY2026 [2][4] - The average selling price of gold jewelry in mainland China increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 51% for priced gold jewelry and 83% for standard gold jewelry, positively impacting sales [1][8] Market Expansion - Chow Tai Fook is pursuing global expansion, with notable performance in Macau, where same-store sales grew by 31.3%. The company is also optimizing its store network in mature markets while entering new potential markets [2][4]