黑色建材日报：市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡运行-20260122

1. Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are moving sideways. The fundamentals of building materials have weakened, with lackluster demand and prominent off - season characteristics. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity [1]. - Iron ore prices are moving sideways. Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and domestic arrivals have also decreased but remain at a historical high. Steel mill blast furnace hot metal production has dropped, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to potential supply shocks [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are moving sideways. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented. Steel mills have low willingness to replenish inventory. There is a game between steel and coke. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of inventory replenishment, which may support coke demand [4][5]. - Thermal coal prices are weakly operating. Terminal users are purchasing on - demand. Market sentiment is bearish. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3286 yuan/ton. In Hangzhou on Tuesday, rebar inventory was 470,000 tons, and the outbound volume was 36,000 tons. Nationwide building material transactions were 76,328 [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand of building materials has weakened, with lackluster demand. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity. Short - term market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to production cuts, winter storage, demand destocking, profits, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Iron ore prices moved sideways. Spot prices in Tangshan's imported iron ore market fell slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was average [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and domestic arrivals also dropped but were still at a historical high. Affected by safety accidents, steel mill blast furnace hot metal production continued to fall. The 242 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the daily average hot metal output of sample steel mills decreased by 210 tons month - on - month. Port inventories continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to supply shocks if liquidity - locking factors are removed. Short - term attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill inventory replenishment [2]. - Strategy: Short on rallies for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Coking coal and coke prices were stable with a slightly upward trend following steel. The main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1129 yuan/ton, and that of coke at 1683.5 yuan/ton. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and domestic coal mine production was relatively stable. Coke enterprises' procurement pace slowed down, and transactions were average. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented [4][5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Steel mill profits are under pressure, and blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production continue to decline. The recent decline in raw material prices has repaired steel profits to some extent. Steel mills are still waiting and seeing about coke price increases. There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support coke demand. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no prominent contradictions. Before the Spring Festival, the downward space of coking coal is limited, and it will continue to move sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply policies, steel mill profits, coking profits, and finished product demand [5]. - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices in major production areas fell weakly. Terminal users such as metallurgical, chemical, and power plants purchased on - demand. Market sentiment was bearish. In the port area, coal prices were weakly operating. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the import market, transactions were sluggish, and bid prices decreased [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and production area supply is gradually recovering. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - Strategy: No strategy provided [8]