市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡运行

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The resumption of production lines in the glass and soda ash sectors has led to a decline in their futures prices. The double - silicon market is suppressed by inventory, and the alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Group 3: Glass Market - Market performance: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in both futures and spot markets was cold [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has improved slightly, but the terminal rigid demand for float glass is difficult to break through in the off - season. In the short term, the glass futures maintain a premium. The glass industry still needs to reduce prices to further cut production due to high inventory. Future focus is on cold - repair and speculative activities [1] Group 4: Soda Ash Market - Market performance: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. The spot market was cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is increasing. New production capacity and the resumption of some devices have increased production, keeping the supply at a high level. The rigid demand from downstream float glass is average, and the demand improvement in photovoltaic glass is limited. If the weak fundamentals continue, soda ash will face further downward pressure. Future focus is on float glass production line changes and new soda ash production projects [1] Group 5: Silicomanganese Market - Market performance: The main contract of silicomanganese continued its weak oscillation yesterday, with limited price fluctuations and small trading volume changes. The 6517 silicomanganese price is 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but inventory pressure is still large, and new production capacity is being added. The supply - demand situation is still loose. There is an expected increase in pig iron production and pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills, which may improve demand. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Future focus is on manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Market - Market performance: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated yesterday. As the January steel procurement is coming to an end, the ferrosilicon market has adjusted slightly, with reduced enthusiasm from traders. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamental contradictions in the ferrosilicon market are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, demand is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected market sentiment, but the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity in the ferrosilicon industry will suppress price increases. Future focus is on inventory reduction and electricity price policies in production areas [3]