下游订单无明显好转，铅价难改震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently has a weak supply - demand situation. The overall rise of the non - ferrous sector previously drove up the lead price, but it declined with the general correction of non - ferrous metals in the second half of the week. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On January 21, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead changed by -125 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,120 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 46,316 lots, an increase of 9,580 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 69,351 lots, a decrease of 4,839 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,035 yuan/ton and 17,160 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,100 yuan/ton and closed at 17,300 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 125 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, some smelters sold mainly through long - term contracts, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract, with a small amount of large - discount goods sold. In Hunan, smelters' discount quotes narrowed, and transactions improved slightly. Traders offered discounts of 75 - 50 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. Although downstream purchasing intention improved at lower prices, downstream orders showed no obvious improvement and market transactions were still light [2] Inventory - On January 21, 2026, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of January 21, the LME lead inventory was 222,650 tons, a decrease of 2,925 tons from the previous day [3] Strategy - For enterprises with hedging needs, they can conduct buying and selling hedging operations at the edges of the 16,900 - 17,800 yuan/ton range according to their own needs. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]