油厂开机充足，豆粕维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [5]. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal industry, although the inventory has significantly declined but remains higher than the same period last year, and the recent auctions of imported soybeans have been favorable, resulting in a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans further consolidates, and future supply pressure persists, so attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and U.S. soybean export situations [1][2]. - For the corn industry, as the shipping situation has improved to some extent, the inventories in the north - south ports have slightly increased. However, due to the high price in the southern port, feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on - demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2725 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton or - 0.40% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2228 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton or - 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 435, a change of + 11 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 325, a change of + 1 from the previous day. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 335, a change of + 1 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 202, a change of + 1 from the previous day [1]. - Market Information: On January 20, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters slightly raised the export forecast for January soybeans to 379 million tons, up from 373 million tons a week ago. As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 133.7 million tons, with a market forecast of 100 - 140 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 159.3 million tons, with an initial value of 153 million tons [1]. 3.1.2. Market Analysis The soybean meal inventory has declined significantly but is still higher than last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure continues. The focus should be on the South American soybean harvest and U.S. soybean export situations [2]. 3.1.3. Strategy The strategy is cautiously bearish [3]. 3.2. Corn 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2283 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2551 yuan/ton, a change of + 1 yuan/ton or + 0.04% from the previous day [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 62, a change of - 3 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 79, a change of - 1 from the previous day [3]. - Market Information: On January 20, as of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 148.3 million tons, with a market forecast of 100 - 140 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 150.4 million tons, with an initial value of 149 million tons [3]. 3.2.2. Market Analysis As the shipping situation has improved, the inventories in the north - south ports have slightly increased. However, due to the high price in the southern port, feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on - demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4]. 3.2.3. Strategy The strategy is neutral [5].