现货交投尚可，短期跟随成本端波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; continue to monitor upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and changes in propane prices on the cost side [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of propylene is tightening, with PDH device parking information continuously being released. The supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to be alleviated, and the market price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The downstream demand has rigid support, but the demand may be limited after the profit is compressed. The international oil price has risen slightly, and the propane price is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 5993 yuan/ton (+30), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price in North China is 6170 yuan/ton (+15), the basis in East China is 332 yuan/ton (-30), the basis in Shandong is 177 yuan/ton (-15), the operating rate is 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha is 251 US dollars/ton (+5), the difference between CFR propylene and 1.2 CFR propane is 75 US dollars/ton (+3), the import profit is -332 yuan/ton (-38), and the in-plant inventory is 46270 tons (+1580) [1] - Downstream of propylene: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (-5.84%), the production profit is -170 yuan/ton (-25); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 72% (-1%), the production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+70); the operating rate of n-butanol is 87% (+4%), the production profit is 663 yuan/ton (-9); the operating rate of octanol is 94% (+5%), the production profit is 736 yuan/ton (+40); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 82% (-5%), the production profit is 159 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 78% (-1%), the production profit is -1378 yuan/ton (+92); the operating rate of phenol-ketone is 89% (+4%), the production profit is -892 yuan/ton (+27) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The overall supply is tightening. The PDH device parking information is continuously released, and the operating rate has declined significantly. The supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to be alleviated [2] - Demand side: The downstream has rigid support, but the demand may be limited after the profit is compressed. The PP powder operating rate has declined significantly, the propylene oxide price has risen and then fallen, and the n-butanol and octanol have strong support for propylene [2] - Cost side: The international oil price has risen slightly, the propane price is relatively strong, and the propylene market price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; continue to monitor upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and changes in propane prices on the cost side [3] - Inter-period: None [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] 3.4 Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and Shandong, the spread between contracts 03-04, the spread between PL03-05 contracts, and the market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][8][17][18] 3.5 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol-to-olefin capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [22][25][30][33][34] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n-butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol-ketone [41][42][49][55][56][59][63] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in-plant inventory and PP powder in-plant inventory [68]