对二甲苯：伊朗局势紧张，油价反弹支撑 PX 估值，PTA：做缩加工费，MEG：下方空间有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to open higher intraday due to the overnight sharp rebound in oil prices affected by the US-Iran conflict. The industry is a bit weak. The price has limited downside space before the Spring Festival and faces pressure after the festival. Attention should be paid to the hedging of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on SC/MX and short on PX. The future PX supply and demand are expected to gradually weaken [5]. - For PTA, the overnight oil price rebound supports its valuation. Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee position. The future supply and demand of PTA are both weak, and it will enter a state of inventory accumulation [6]. - MEG has valuation support below 3600, showing a range - bound market. Attention should be paid to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage. The supply pressure is still large, but the downside space is limited [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7206, 5154, 3689, 6496, and 440.8 respectively. The price changes were - 26, 10, 15, 2, and 3.8, with price change rates of - 0.36%, 0.19%, 0.41%, 0.03%, and 0.87% respectively [2]. - The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 on the previous day were 42, 44, - 117, - 40, and - 0.6 respectively, with price changes of - 18, - 8, - 10, 2, and 1.3 respectively compared with the previous day [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 888.33 dollars/ton, 5085 yuan/ton, 3581 yuan/ton, 558.5 dollars/ton, and 67.43 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were 0.33, 75, - 14, 9.5, and - 0.57 respectively compared with the previous day [2]. - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread on the previous day were 330.5, 309.31, 120.64, 149.42, and - 4.34 respectively. The price changes were 4.42, - 70.31, - 21.37, 47.24, and 0 respectively compared with the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - Crude oil: Some oil fields in Kazakhstan have not resumed production, and geopolitical uncertainties remain, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The US military is strengthening its air power in the Middle East due to high - tension relations between the US and Iran [4]. - PX: The naphtha price was weakly maintained in the late trading. The estimated price of February MOPJ was 555 dollars/ton CFR. On January 21, the PX price remained stable. In 2025, the total PX import volume in mainland China was 9.607 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The import dependence rebounded slightly to around 20% [4]. - Polyester: On January 21, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with an average sales rate of about 80% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber declined, with an average sales rate of 78% by 3:00 pm [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1 [5].