氧化铝少量检修，压产过剩格局不改

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [9] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by short - term factors such as transportation disruptions due to snowstorms and downstream production cuts, with prices needing to correct. In the long run, macro factors support price increases. The alumina market has an oversupply situation that remains unchanged despite minor production cuts, and costs provide weak support. The aluminum alloy market is currently in a neutral state [6][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On January 21, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,710 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 150 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,610 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by 30 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 21, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,965 yuan/ton, closed at 24,155 yuan/ton, with a change of 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,250 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 468,256 lots, and the position was 343,223 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 749,000 tons, with a change of 13,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,755 tons, with a change of - 1,196 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 507,175 tons, with a change of 24,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 21, 2026, the price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,615 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 21, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,679 yuan/ton, closed at 2,672 yuan/ton, with a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.71%. The highest price reached 2,689 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,651 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 371,676 lots, and the position was 486,425 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 21, 2026, the purchasing price of Baotai civil - grade primary aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the purchasing price of mechanical primary aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,200 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,119 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 481 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: Transportation disruptions due to snowstorms led to a slight decline in inventory in mainstream areas, and the spot discount was slightly repaired. However, downstream enterprises cut production due to factors such as tight funds and environmental protection, resulting in a significant decline in aluminum rod production. The increase in absolute price was difficult to be transmitted downstream, and downstream enterprises may enter the Spring Festival holiday in advance. The early inventory accumulation node and fast inventory accumulation rate put pressure on prices. In the long run, macro factors support price increases, but in the short term, there is a need for price correction [6] - Alumina: A 1 - million - ton alumina plant in Guizhou had a phased production cut for 1 - 2 months, and an 1.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Henan had a 10 - day maintenance. Minor production cuts did not change the current oversupply situation. Spot prices continued to decline, and the futures market was at a premium. On the cost side, the import of bauxite was sluggish, prices declined, shipping costs also decreased, and the supply of bauxite was guaranteed in the long run, so cost support was weak. The marginal cash flow of alumina plants was not significantly in deficit, supply pressure remained high, social inventory continued to increase, and there was a possibility of over - inventory in the future [7][8]