石油沥青日报：降温抑制刚需，局部现货下跌-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, early long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Southern cooling restricts asphalt rigid demand, leading to a decline in spot prices in some areas, and the market is in a volatile stage after pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply [2] - Venezuelan oil supply to domestic refineries is expected to tighten, and the market is concerned about alternative raw materials and cost impacts. After inventory raw materials are consumed, domestic refineries need to find alternative heavy - quality raw materials, making cost and product yield changes more complex [2] - There is still support at the cost end of asphalt, but weak terminal demand and a wide range of alternative raw materials will limit the market's upside [2] 3. Market Analysis - On January 21, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,157 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 187,438 lots, a decrease of 3,111 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 148,540 lots, an increase of 29,623 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,000 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China: 3,150 - 3,250 yuan/ton; East China: 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, asphalt spot prices in North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing areas declined, while prices in other areas remained stable [2] 4. Graphs - The report includes graphs showing various aspects of asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [4]