化工日报：刚需支撑转弱，EG偏弱调整-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market analysis shows that the closing price of the EG main contract was 3689 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton or +0.41% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 3581 yuan/ton (a change of -14 yuan/ton or -0.39% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +2 yuan/ton) [1]. - The production profit data indicates that the production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -83 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -6 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - made EG was -958 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -31 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 79.5 tons (a month-on-month decrease of -0.7 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (a month-on-month increase of +2.8 tons). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The overall supply - demand logic of the fundamentals is that on the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas - made load is not obvious, the domestic ethylene glycol load is still rising at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large under the high supply and weakening demand from January to February. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will be relieved after February, but the import volume contraction is slow, and the pressure in January is still high. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans will be gradually implemented in mid - January, and the weaving load and polyester load may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. - The strategies are as follows: for single positions, it is neutral in the short term and a short - side allocation in the medium term. The current price is not high, and there is certain buying support at the low level, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market increases, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still large under the supply pressure, and the import volume contraction is slow, so the overall trend is weakening in a volatile manner. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605. For inter - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the ethylene glycol spot basis in East China, sourced from Longzhong and CCF, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][6][8] Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on ethylene - made EG gross profit, coal - based syngas - made EG gross profit, naphtha - integrated EG gross profit, and methanol - made EG gross profit are included. The data sources are Flush, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [10][14][15]. - Figures on the total EG load and the syngas - made EG load are included, with data from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][17] International Price Difference - The report contains a figure on the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Figures on filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle chip load are included, with data from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][23][24] Inventory Data - Figures on ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, and the combined inventory of Jiangyin + Changzhou Port and Shanghai + Changshu Port are included, with data from CCF and Longzhong, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [28][31][33]. - Figures on the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol at East China ports are included, sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [37]