山东烧碱库存继续累库

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - V03 - 05 long at low prices; Inter - variety - None [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bearish; Inter - period - SH03 - 05 short at high prices; Inter - variety - None [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent rush to export has supported the spot. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, further loosening the supply - demand relationship [3] - The caustic soda spot price is weak due to low - price warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand is weak. Shandong's inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in downstream liquid chlorine devices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,743 yuan/ton (- 64); the East China basis is - 243 yuan/ton (+ 24); the South China basis is - 203 yuan/ton (+ 24) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (- 40); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (- 40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide price is 2,855 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide profit is - 35 yuan/ton (+ 0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 662 yuan/ton (- 29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 138 yuan/ton (+ 54); the PVC export profit is 0.1 US dollars/ton (- 10.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (- 1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+ 1.5); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.66% (+ 0.43%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 75.48% (- 0.21%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.08% (+ 0.23%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+ 1.7) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Domestic PVC supply is abundant, and the operation rate has rebounded. Fujian Wanhua will enter maintenance this week, and the supply is expected to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream operation rates have decreased, with the profile operation rate dropping, and the pipe and film operation rates remaining flat. There is an expectation of further decline in the future, and downstream enterprises purchase on dips [3] - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level compared to the same period [3] - Cost: The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has decreased this week due to the weak spot price of caustic soda, and is at a low level compared to the same period. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in the red [3] - Other: PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,939 yuan/ton (- 21); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 623 yuan/ton (- 2); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,060 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 926 yuan/ton (- 6); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 481.9 yuan/ton (- 6.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 575.08 yuan/ton (- 26.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 453.49 yuan/ton (- 50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 51.21 tons (+ 1.70); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (- 0.18); the caustic soda operation rate is 86.70% (+ 0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.83% (+ 0.09%); the dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.76% (- 1.33%); the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.43% (+ 0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: The overall operation rate is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is falling, and chlor - alkali enterprises have a stronger willingness to support the price of liquid chlorine. There are few planned maintenance enterprises [3] - Demand: The downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 615 yuan/ton. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic with insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders remain sluggish [3]