聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚：聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PTA - PTA supply is under planned maintenance, demand is seasonally weakening, and the balance is gradually entering a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The supply - demand drive is average with a processing fee of around 300+. Short - term expectations are not bad, and attention should be paid to capital changes [5][57]. PX - PX supply - demand changes are minimal. Near - term imports are rising while demand is weakening, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Long - term expectations are favorable, and short - term valuations are not low. Attention should be paid to capital preferences [6]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - The cost of ethylene glycol has corrected, the expected import arrivals are not low, polyester is in a seasonal production cut, and the near - term faces seasonal inventory accumulation. After a short - term correction, the valuation is in a low - level range, and it is expected to trade in a range in the short term [7][137]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester - Polyester maintenance is gradually increasing, and the load is seasonally declining. As of January 16, the polyester load was around 88.3%, and the estimated loads for January and February are 88% and 83% respectively. Polyester cash flow has improved significantly, and the average inventory is around 12.9 days, with overall inventory pressure being low [8][14][38]. - Terminal new orders are average. Domestic demand has entered the pre - holiday off - season, while foreign demand is reported to have improved. As of January 15, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 70% (- 2%), 55% (- 1%), and 70% (+ 1%) respectively [9]. PTA - PTA device changes: New materials are under planned maintenance, Ineos' 1.25 - million - ton device is shut down until the end of March, Dushan No.3 has restarted, Dushan No.2 is planned to shut down at the end of the month, and YS's three sets of devices and Sichuan Energy Investment are under maintenance. The planned maintenance volume from January to February is not low [45]. - PTA inventory: As of January 16, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has increased by 40,000 tons to 2.045 million tons. The inventory in warehouses and ports has slightly decreased, while the inventory in PTA and polyester factories has increased. Currently, the PTA inventory pressure is not high [46]. - PTA balance sheet: From January to February, there is a slight seasonal inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee remains stable, and the short - term drive is average. Attention should be paid to capital changes, and after a correction, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish at low levels [57]. PX - PX device changes: The domestic PX load is 89.4%, and the Asian load is 80.6%. Jinling in China has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load as planned, and Fuhua has plans for maintenance and capacity expansion. In Asia, Thailand's PTTG has restarted and increased its load, and a 190,000 - ton device in Israel has restarted [85]. - PX balance sheet: The near - term changes are minimal, and the PX supply - demand is in a loose balance. The PXN is around 330+ and the valuation has slightly weakened, with an unclear drive [89]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - MEG device changes: The domestic MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 80%. Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and one line of Shenghong are under maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, and Sanjiang plans to reduce its load in February. The restart of Henan Energy has been postponed, and Yankuang has restarted. Overseas, two sets of devices of Taiwan Nan Ya are shut down, three sets of devices in Saudi Arabia are under maintenance, the Kuwaiti device is under maintenance for one month, an Iranian device is under maintenance, and a 360,000 - ton device of US Nan Ya is under maintenance [104][108][124]. - MEG inventory: As of January 19, the port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 795,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrival volume from January 19 - 25 is 205,000 tons, and the port inventory is expected to slightly increase. The raw material stocking days of polyester factories for ethylene glycol are 15.2 days (+ 0.6), and downstream stocking has steadily increased [132]. - MEG balance sheet: The near - term port arrival expectations are high, and it is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The drive is average, and it is expected to trade in a range [137].