满帮集团（YMM）：核心业务货币化稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to generate revenue of 3.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year change of -1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, remaining flat year-over-year. The overall revenue change is minimal, primarily due to strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage and credit solutions businesses. The core freight transaction service's commission penetration and monetization capabilities are steadily improving [1][2] - The company has announced a long-term shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous year's non-GAAP net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. For 2026, the total shareholder return is set at 400 million USD, with 300 million allocated for dividends and 100 million for buybacks, indicating a clear and sustainable shareholder return mechanism [1][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.4 billion, 11.5 billion, and 13.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 4.9 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a long-term positive outlook despite short-term adjustments in the freight brokerage business [5][11] - The report anticipates a 31% year-over-year increase in commission business revenue to 1.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in the take rate by the end of 2026 [2][3] Business Model and Strategy - The company is optimizing its freight brokerage and credit businesses, maintaining stability in scale and risk. Adjustments in the freight brokerage model, such as collaborating with small network freight platforms, are expected to enhance overall profitability [3] - New business investments, including approximately 500 million RMB in overseas markets and smart home initiatives, are deemed manageable and primarily exploratory, with limited impact on profitability [2] Valuation and Target Price - The report adjusts the valuation to a target price of 16.1 USD for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 times, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in China's digital freight market and the increasing online penetration rate [5][12]