新能源及有色金属日报：下游负反馈逐步显现，铜价陷入震荡格局-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put [7] Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week has slightly affected the market's outlook on the demand for non-ferrous metals, with the copper variety also being affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper prices, weak downstream demand, and recent obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern, with an expected trading range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 21, 2026, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 100,550 yuan/ton and closed at 100,260 yuan/ton, basically flat from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 80 yuan/ton to the current-month contract, with an average discount of 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 99,820 - 100,300 yuan/ton. The market supply was clearly differentiated, with good-quality copper like Guixi and Jinchuan selling quickly due to tight supply, and the price of wet-process copper remaining relatively firm. Downstream procurement showed structural characteristics, with leading enterprises being more active in purchasing, and some end-users showing significantly increased acceptance when the copper price was below 99,500 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to remain stable today supported by the holders' willingness to hold prices [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: The situation in Greenland has taken a turn for the better. US President Trump announced an agreement framework with NATO Secretary-General Rutte on the Greenland issue. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO member states. Trump also said that the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1 will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks, with all three major indices up more than 1%. The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22 local time [3] - Economic Forecast: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month, when most respondents still expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [3] - Mining: On January 21, Rio Tinto announced its Q4 2025 production results. The company's copper production in Q4 2025 was 240,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%; the annual production in 2025 was 883,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding the upper limit of the revised guidance target (860,000 - 875,000 tons). This growth was mainly due to the successful production increase at the Oyu Tolgoi project, where the underground mine development project has been fully completed. On January 20, the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced that it has submitted a list of targeted mineral projects, including manganese, copper-cobalt, gold, and lithium projects, to the US for investment [4] - Smelting and Imports: On January 20, the spot price of LME copper showed a significant premium over the forward futures price, with the "Tom/next" spread reaching the highest level since the historical supply shortage in 2021. The spread once soared to a $100 premium, which usually indicates a surge in spot demand. This fluctuation has triggered a new round of shocks in the LME copper market. LME data shows that as of last Friday, the long positions held by three independent entities accounted for at least 30% of the January open contracts. If held to maturity, these positions will require the delivery of more than 130,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total inventory available for immediate withdrawal in the LME warehousing system [5] - Consumption: The copper price has been fluctuating in a narrow range. As the end of the month approaches, the downstream consumption boost is limited. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, the market demand is relatively stable. But since the overall orders of the downstream market this week have been mediocre, downstream enterprises have basically maintained a strategy of purchasing on a just-in-time basis when the price is low [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 8,875 tons to 159,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -2,612 tons to 145,581 tons. On January 21, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [6]