贵金属日报：地缘风险降温，贵金属冲高回落-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The market risk sentiment has converged, but the trading focus remains on geopolitical factors. The demand logic for gold investment remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile pattern due to the slight cooling of risk sentiment [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. US President Trump announced an agreement framework on the Greenland issue with NATO Secretary-General Lute. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO members. Trump will not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1st. Affected by this news, US stocks rose sharply, with all three major indexes rising more than 1%. The EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22nd local time [1]. - Economic outlook: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1063.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram, a change of 3.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 1097.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1091.80 yuan/gram, a 0.05% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 23,660.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23,131.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 870,541 lots, and the open interest was 301,919 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 23,037 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,938 yuan/kilogram, an 0.83% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 21, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.239%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.661%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 14,122 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 6,877 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 546,827 lots, a change of 93.32% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -4,635 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,634 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,948,125 lots, a change of 23.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,222 tons, an increase of 149 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 21, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -709.99 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 47.22, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 49.36, a change of -1.58% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 21, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 95,478 kilograms, a change of 108.84% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 422,976 kilograms, a change of -1.38% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1070 yuan/gram - 1150 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram - 23,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].