2月上半月现货价格修正，节前预计驱动偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price was adjusted in the first half of February, and the pre - holiday driving force is expected to be weak. Maersk's WEEK6 quotation was unexpectedly lowered, and the valuation of the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract was revised down. The cancellation of the VAT export tax refund policy for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the off - season attributes of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near term. The attempt of Maersk to resume sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 21, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 60,286.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 28,032.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1707.20, 1129.70, 1378.00, 1486.10, 1074.70, and 1326.70 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route showed different prices for different time periods. For example, Maersk's WEEK5 price was 1520/2440, and WEEK6 was 1265/2010. The spot price has loosened, with MSC's price in the second half of January revised down to 2640 US dollars/FEU, and Maersk's WEEK6 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote at 2000 - 2100 US dollars/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided. In general, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in January was 342,200 TEU, 273,700 TEU in February, and 289,700 TEU in March. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - CMA CGM has decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year. The cancellation of the VAT export tax refund policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe can increase significantly in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years [4][5].