20260122申万期货品种策略日报：双焦（JM&J）-20260122

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a weak trend in the night session yesterday, and the total open interest of coking coal increased slightly month - on - month. The downstream's seasonal increase in pre - holiday rigid demand for restocking can support coal prices, so it is judged that the short - term decline of the futures market is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in hot metal production, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - Closing Prices and Changes: For coking coal futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1366.5, 1129.0, and 1203.0 respectively, with price changes of 5.0, 1.0, and - 0.5 and price change rates of 0.07%, 0.44%, and - 0.04% compared to the day before. For coke futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1872.0, 1683.5, and 1758.5 respectively, with price changes of 12.0, 10.0, and 10.0 and price change rates of 0.65%, 0.60%, and 0.57% compared to the day before [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of coking coal futures for the January, May, and September contracts were 2093, 864680, and 43683 respectively, and the open interests were 3326, 515444, and 79074 respectively. The changes in open interest were 882, - 17288, and 684 respectively. For coke futures, the trading volumes of the January, May, and September contracts were 19, 14616, and 632 respectively, and the open interests were 82, 38358, and 1438 respectively. The changes in open interest were 15, - 71, and - 55 respectively [1]. - Price Spreads: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively. For coke, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1]. Spot Market Data - Prices and Changes: The port self - pick - up price of Meng 5 main coking coal was 1234, the ex - factory price in Linfen was 1640, the rail - side price in Taiyuan was 1530, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Grade I coke was 1800, the ex - factory price of Jinzhong Quasi - Grade I coke was 1280, and the warehouse price of a certain grade was 1450. The changes in spot prices were 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [1]. Industry News and Market Analysis - Real Estate Policy: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized making good use of the urban regulatory autonomy, adhering to the policy of implementing measures according to the city, and giving play to the role of the "white list" system for real estate financing to support reasonable demand and promote the stable operation of the market [1]. - Steel Production and Inventory: According to Steel Valley data, the current national building materials production was basically flat month - on - month, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly month - on - month. The total inventory of building materials continued to increase month - on - month, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was basically flat month - on - month. The apparent demand for both decreased slightly month - on - month. Last week, the hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the profitability rate of sample steel mills increased month - on - month [1].