航运衍生品数据日报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The MSK European line spot freight rate has been reduced with an expanding decline. Before the Spring Festival, shipping companies need to allocate in - festival capacity to cope with reduced demand. Coupled with high current capacity, the pressure to attract cargo has increased significantly. The PA alliance is likely to follow suit in reducing prices, and the spot quotation in early February may continue to decline. CMA CGM's multiple routes originally planned to resume through the Suez Canal have returned to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope, which may drive the sentiment of far - month contracts to rebound. However, the resumption is not fully priced in the market, and the supply - demand situation of EC in 2026 is weakening. Overall, near - month contracts will continue to be weak, and the strategy is still to short - allocate off - season contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The current value of the comprehensive index SCFI is 1574, with a decline of 4.45% compared to the previous value of 1647; the CCFI index is 1210, with an increase of 1.25% compared to the previous value of 1195. For different routes, SCFI - US West is 2194, down 1.08%; SCFIS - US West is 1305, down 1.36%; SCFI - US East is 3163, up 1.12%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1676, down 2.50%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1954, down 0.10%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2983, down 7.70% [6]. - Spot Prices: - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM's price is 3693/FEU, relatively firm; COSCO Shipping's is 3325/FEU; Evergreen Marine's is 3030 - 3130/FEU, about 400 lower than before; Orient Overseas' is 2880/FEU, 150 lower than before. The overall FAK central value is about 2700 - 3300/FEU [6]. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's price in Week 4 (1.20 - 1.26) is 1695/2730 (20'/40'), dropping to 1510/2420 in Week 5, and non - European base ports are as low as 2400/FEU; Hapag - Lloyd's is 1585/2535 (20'/40'), and the February quote remains unchanged. The overall FMK central value is about 2400 - 2700/FEU [6]. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC's is 1580/2640 (20'/40'); Ocean Network Express (ONE)'s is 1680/2635 (20'/40'), with the same price in February; Yang Ming Marine's is about 2600/FEU, relatively stable; HMA's is 1433/2436 (20'/40') [6]. 3.2 Market Logic and Strategy - Logic: The pressure on shipping companies to attract cargo has increased due to capacity and demand factors. The change in CMA CGM's routes may affect far - month contracts, but the market has not fully priced in the resumption, and the long - term supply - demand situation is weak [8]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - allocating off - season contracts [9].