Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-22 05:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that Anta Sports achieved double-digit growth across its brands, meeting annual growth guidance. The outdoor brand continues to show strong internal momentum [8] - The main brand, Anta, experienced a slight decline in retail sales in Q4 2025, primarily due to weaker performance in the children's segment and e-commerce [8] - FILA brand showed better-than-expected performance with mid-single-digit growth in Q4 2025, reflecting effective adjustments [8] - Other brands, including Descente, maintained strong performance with retail growth of 25%-30% in Q4 2025, marking Descente as the third brand to exceed 10 billion in retail scale [8] - The company expects to maintain a healthy inventory level and not pursue aggressive growth in 2026, despite a challenging retail market [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 799.8 billion RMB - FY2026E: 896.5 billion RMB - FY2027E: 970.0 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 16% for FY2023, 14% for FY2024, 13% for FY2025E, 12% for FY2026E, and 8% for FY2027E [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - FY2023: 102.4 billion RMB - FY2024: 156.0 billion RMB - FY2025E: 132.0 billion RMB - FY2026E: 140.0 billion RMB - FY2027E: 157.4 billion RMB - The projected diluted earnings per share are 3.61 RMB for FY2023, 5.41 RMB for FY2024, and 4.60 RMB for FY2025E [7][19]