弱现实强预期，PTA基差偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the PTA basis is weak. The crude oil price has retreated, but potential risks remain, and it will fluctuate around the situations in Venezuela and Iran. The PX fundamentals are weakening in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good. The PTA is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, but the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term [1]. - The polyester开工率 is decreasing, the terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the filament inventory is accumulating. The PF is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the PR has smoothly reduced inventory before the Spring Festival [1][2]. - For trading strategies, go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the short - term under capital increase, but pay attention to PX fluctuations, polyester and PTA factory actions, and go long on dips for mid - term hedging. Also, go long on PTA and short on MEG for cross - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operation rate [43][45][53] 3.7 Detailed PF Data - Figures involve 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [67][71][74] 3.8 Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][92]