BAIC BluePark(SH:600733) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-22 05:45Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 11.49 CNY [5][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a pioneer in China's new energy vehicle industry, with dual-brand synergy driving positive transformation. The leading layout in autonomous driving and a diversified product matrix are expected to support revenue growth [2][19]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 29 billion CNY in 2025, 58 billion CNY in 2026, and 89 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 100%, 101%, and 53% respectively [13][19]. - The dual-brand strategy, focusing on the premium and luxury segments, is expected to enhance revenue and performance recovery, with the company aiming for over 200,000 vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84.06% [11][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 14,319 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase to 88,885 million CNY by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 52.6% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 5,400 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 1,267 million CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The gross margin is anticipated to turn positive in the third quarter of 2025, with a projected gross profit of 1 billion CNY in 2025 and 107 billion CNY in 2027 [11][19]. Business Segment Forecast - Vehicle sales are expected to generate revenues of 272.45 billion CNY in 2025, 564.67 billion CNY in 2026, and 870.48 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding gross profits turning from a loss to a profit by 2026 [13][16]. - The vehicle operation revenue is projected to grow steadily, reaching 2.36 billion CNY in 2025, with consistent growth of 10% year-on-year [14]. - Material sales and leasing revenues are expected to remain stable, with minor growth anticipated in leasing income [14][15]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, with a target P/S of 1.1 times for 2026, leading to a target price of 11.49 CNY [19][20].