国投证券(香港)港股晨报-20260122

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive sentiment with all three major indices rising, led by the Hang Seng Tech Index which increased by 1.11% [1] - The market exhibited characteristics of "policy-driven technology" and "strengthening of safe-haven assets," with total market turnover rising to HKD 250.5 billion [1] - Southbound capital saw a significant rebound, with a net inflow of HKD 13.9 billion, indicating renewed investor interest [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector was the main driver of the rebound, particularly stocks related to robotics, which surged following favorable policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, reflecting a recovery in investor confidence towards hard technology sectors [2] - In contrast, the domestic demand and real estate sectors showed weakness, with sportswear stocks declining due to disappointing quarterly results from leading companies [2] Group 3: Company Analysis - Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group is under investigation for potential anti-competitive practices, specifically regarding its "price adjustment assistant" feature, which automatically adjusts hotel prices based on market data [5][6] - Following the announcement of the investigation, the company's ADR fell by 17% and its Hong Kong stock price dropped by 19% [5] - The potential financial impact of the investigation could result in fines ranging from HKD 400 million to HKD 4 billion, which may affect the company's adjusted net profit for 2026 [7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Valuation - The investigation's timeline is estimated to be around 4-6 months, with potential penalties based on previous cases indicating fines of 1%-10% of the previous year's sales [7] - Despite the investigation, Trip.com is expected to maintain its leading position in the OTA market, although there may be slight adjustments in commission rates [7] - The target price for Trip.com has been adjusted to HKD 551 (9961.HK) / USD 71 (TCOM.US) based on a revised valuation of 16 times the 2026 earnings, down from 20 times [8]