Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations with net revenue of 18.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing the bank/market expectations by 2%/1% [1] - Accommodation bookings increased by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue respectively, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit reached 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding bank/market expectations by 4%/5%, with an operating profit margin rising to 30% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, primarily reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [1] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [2] - Outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery faster than the industry average [2] - International OTA hotel and ticket bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [2] - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled year-on-year [2] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 30%, with strong growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [3] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [3] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [3] - The bank is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [3] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [3] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 18.4 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, slightly above the firm's and market expectations by 2% and 1% respectively [2] - Accommodation bookings grew by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [2] - Gross profit rose by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating profit was 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding the firm's and market expectations by 4% and 5% respectively, with an operating profit margin of 30% [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, mainly reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [2] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [3] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a faster recovery than the industry average [3] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [3] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year [3] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound travel hotel and flight bookings increased by 30%, with notable growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [4] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [4] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [4] - The firm is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [4] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [4] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [4]

机构：麦高证券 研究员：钟奕昕 事件：11 月17 日，携程集团发布2025 年三季度报告，得益于越来越强劲的旅游需求，携程主营业务营 收稳健增长，2025Q3 公司营收183 亿元（同比+16%），归母净利润199 亿元，经调整EBITDA 为63 亿 元。 携程2025Q3 业绩表现亮眼。旅游旺季期间需求强劲，国内和国际旅游市场均表现出健康势头，交通、 住宿板块业务仍是公司主营业务的核心驱动。2025Q3，住宿预订营收为80 亿元，同比增长18%，得益 于出境游和国际酒店预定的强劲势头，国内需求持续强劲；交通票务营收63 亿元，同比增长12%，国 际航空预定强劲增长；旅游度假营收为16 亿元，同比增长3%，主要受国际产品线扩张驱动；商旅管理 营收7.56 亿元，同比增长15%，得益于更多公司采用该服务。 银发和年轻旅客需求强劲，呈现代际多样化趋势。根据携程2025Q3 业绩发布会，三季度老友会用户数 量及GMV 增长超70%，富裕且活跃的银发旅客注重探索并且消费优质旅行。携程老友会也在定制更多 产品和服务，上海推出第一家"老友会旗舰店"，与银发旅客面对面交流，并围绕其兴趣设计旅行主题。 此外，年轻旅客偏好 ...

机构：华创证券 研究员：饶临风/曹锦瑜 事项：携程集团发布2025 年三季报 公司于2025 年三季度实现营业收入183.7 亿元，yoy+15.5%；毛利率81.7%，yoy-0.7pcts；营业利润55.7 亿元，yoy+ 11.3%；净利润198.9 亿元，yoy+194.0%，主要系三季度处置部分投资带来利润增量。 评论： 住宿预订业务营收增速超预期。营收分拆看，住宿预订业务营收80.5 亿元，yoy+18.3%；交通票务收入 63.1 亿元，yoy+11.6%；旅游度假业务营收16.1 亿元，yoy+3.1%；商旅管理业务营收7.6 亿元， 185.4/210.5/242.9 亿元）。参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026 年20×PE，目标市值4524 亿港元，对应目 标价635 港元/股，对应空间12.3%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：海外业务扩张不及预期；国内需求增长放缓；行业竞争加剧；地缘政治风险。 国际业务高增持续。2025 年三季度，国际OTA 平台总预订同比增长约60%，入境旅游预订同比增长超 100%，出境酒店和机票预订达到2019 年同期的140%。其中，亚太地区贡献主要增长，三季度 ...

2025 年11 月18 日公司公告2025Q3 财报，整体实现净营业收入183亿元（YoY+16%），归母净利润199 亿元（YoY+194%），Non-GAAP 归母净利润192 亿元（YoY+221%）。其中交通票务实现净营业收入 63 亿元（YoY+12%），住宿预订实现净营业收入80 亿元（YoY+18%），旅游度假实现净营业收入16 亿元（YoY+3%），商旅管理实现净营业收入7.6亿元（YoY+15%）。 出境业务：持续稳健增长，长途旅行需求不断释放。据公司在财报电话会中披露，2025Q3 行业整体跨 境航班运力已经恢复到2019 年同期的88%，公司出境酒店和机票预订量同比增长近20%、已恢复至2019 年同期的140%水平，展现出强劲的市场竞争力，中国游客不断扩大旅行半径，对长线旅游目的地兴趣 增加，驱动行业持续复苏。 全球OTA 业务：Trip.com 预订持续高增长，入境游表现亮眼。1）2025Q3 国际OTA 平台总预订同比增 长约60%，其中亚太地区贡献显著；目前移动端贡献超过70%的总预订量，是关键增长引擎；2）入境 游显著增长，2025Q3 入境旅游预订量同比增长超100%，亚太 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：崔世峰/于伯韬 收入端略超预期。三季度携程实现营收183.67 亿（vsguidance181 亿），同比增长15.52%，其中交通票 务收入63.06 亿（vs guidance62 亿），同比增长11.61%，酒店收入80.47 亿（vsguidance79 亿），同比增 长18.30%，旅游度假收入16.06 亿（vsguidance17 亿），同比增长3.08%，商旅收入7.56 亿（vs guidance7.2亿）。三季度携程国内业务收入占比达65%左右，增速接近10%左右；出境业务收入占比接 近mid-teens，增速接近mid-teens；纯海外业务收入占比20%以上，增速在40%左右，其中Trip.com收入 占比13%左右，增速在60-65%左右。三季度国际业务保持强劲增长势头，国际OTA 平台总预订同比增 长超过60%，入境旅游预订同比增长超过100%，出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019 年疫情前同期的 140%水平。 受益于处置MMYT 部分股权影响，利润端大幅增长。携程三季度实现毛利润149.79 亿元，同比增长 14.58%，毛利率达到81.68%，同比 ...

记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 11月18日，携程集团公布2025年第三季度财报，数据显示单季净利润达到199亿元，同比大幅增长 194%，创下净利润超过营业收入的罕见记录。 这一利润表现背后，是一项精明的跨境投资退出决策。携程通过出售所持印度在线旅游巨头 MakeMyTrip部分股权，一举获得约170亿元巨额收益。 "这主要得益于处置某些投资所得，"携程CFO王肖璠在业绩发布会上坦言。她所指的，正是携程对 MakeMyTrip这笔历时九年的投资。不过，剔除这笔投资收益，携程第三季度净利润并没有那么可观， 远低于去年同期的68亿元。 下一步，携程要如何向投资者描绘增长曲线？ | TCOM Financial Results Recap | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RMB '00mn | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3025 | 3Q25E | var. | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 19.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 194%, primarily driven by a strategic exit from its investment in MakeMyTrip, which generated approximately 17 billion RMB in revenue from the sale of shares [1][4]. Investment in MakeMyTrip - Ctrip's investment in MakeMyTrip began in January 2016 with a convertible bond of 180 million USD, marking its entry into the Indian market, which was seen as having high growth potential due to a rapidly rising middle class [4][5]. - The investment was strategically timed, as the IMF projected India's economic growth at 7.5% in 2016, with a significant increase in the middle-class population, providing a strong foundation for tourism consumption [4]. - Over nine years, Ctrip's stake in MakeMyTrip grew, with the book value of the investment reaching 6.2 billion RMB by the end of 2023 and 7.1 billion RMB by the end of 2024, indicating a stable appreciation [5][6]. - In June 2025, Ctrip sold part of its shares in MakeMyTrip for 2.5 to 3 billion USD, reducing its voting rights from 45.3% to 16.9%, transitioning from a strategic to a financial investor [5][6]. Growth Engines - Ctrip's management highlighted three main growth engines: AI technology, inbound tourism, and targeted market segmentation [8][9]. - AI is positioned as a core strategic pillar, with Ctrip's AI travel assistant, TripGenie, expanding its user base significantly, indicating a strong focus on enhancing customer experience through technology [8]. - The inbound tourism sector is identified as a rapidly growing area, with Ctrip noting that China's inbound tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP is significantly lower than that of developed countries, suggesting substantial growth potential [9]. - Ctrip is also focusing on the silver economy, targeting older consumers who have three times the spending power of younger demographics, and has seen significant growth in its "Old Friends Club" membership and transaction volume [9][10]. Market Challenges - Despite strong Q3 performance, the online travel industry faces renewed price competition, with major players like JD and Douyin entering the market [13]. - Ctrip's management emphasized the importance of quality service over price competition, as the market trends indicate a persistent decline in hotel and flight prices [13][14]. - The recovery of international business remains slow, with global airline capacity only at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, which could hinder faster growth for Ctrip's international operations [14]. - Ctrip is adopting a differentiated competitive strategy, including a global SOS service network for customer support and a refined marketing approach based on market maturity [14].

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 19.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 194%, marking a rare instance where net profit exceeded revenue [1] - The profit surge was primarily driven by a strategic exit from a cross-border investment, specifically the sale of part of its stake in Indian online travel giant MakeMyTrip, yielding approximately 17 billion RMB [1][5] - Excluding this investment gain, Ctrip's Q3 net profit was substantially lower than the previous year's 6.8 billion RMB [1] Investment in MakeMyTrip - Ctrip's investment in MakeMyTrip began in January 2016, with an initial investment of 180 million USD in convertible bonds, positioning Ctrip as a significant player in the Indian market [1][2] - The investment was based on the strong growth potential of the Indian economy and the rapid rise of its middle class, which was estimated to have reached 140 million people [2] - MakeMyTrip was already the largest OTA in India at the time of investment, holding a 15% market share in domestic flights and experiencing a 50% growth in hotel revenue [2] Strategic Developments - Ctrip's stake in MakeMyTrip was further solidified through a series of strategic equity operations, culminating in Ctrip holding approximately 49% of the voting rights by the end of 2024 [3] - The investment's value increased over the nine years, with Ctrip reporting a book value of 6.2 billion RMB and 7.1 billion RMB for its stake in MakeMyTrip by the end of 2023 and 2024, respectively [3] - In June 2025, Ctrip sold part of its Class B shares in MakeMyTrip for 2.5 to 3 billion USD, reducing its voting rights from 45.3% to 16.9%, transitioning from a strategic to a financial investor [3][4] Market Position and Future Growth - Despite relinquishing control over MakeMyTrip, Ctrip remains the largest minority shareholder, allowing it to benefit from the growth of the Indian online travel market, which has seen MakeMyTrip achieve over 50% market share in the OTA sector [4] - MakeMyTrip's total gross booking value (GBV) for FY2025 is projected to reach 9.8 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [4] Ctrip's Growth Engines - Ctrip's management highlighted three key growth engines: AI technology, inbound tourism, and targeted market segmentation [6][7] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance customer service and operational efficiency, with its AI travel assistant, TripGenie, experiencing over 200% user growth in the first half of 2025 [6] - Inbound tourism is identified as a rapidly growing segment, with significant potential for growth compared to developed countries, where inbound tourism revenue constitutes 1% to 5% of GDP [7] Market Challenges - Ctrip faces challenges from intensified price competition in the online travel industry, exacerbated by competitors like JD.com and Douyin [10] - Despite a strong Q3 performance, the overall market conditions remain challenging, with domestic hotel and flight prices showing only slight declines [10] - The recovery of international business is also constrained, with global airline capacity only reaching 88% of pre-pandemic levels, impacting Ctrip's growth potential [10] Competitive Strategy - In response to market challenges, Ctrip is adopting a differentiated competitive strategy, emphasizing high-quality service over price competition [11] - The company has announced a new 5 billion USD stock buyback plan, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [11] - Ctrip's ongoing investment in technology and customer support services is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the evolving travel market [11]

2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：利 润强劲增长，关注国际业务长期增量（买入）*旅 游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟》——2025-08-31 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：旅 游需求持续强劲，关注国际业务长期增量（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 2025-05-24 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2024Q4 财报点评：延 续高质量增长，看好国际业务长期增量空间（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 事件: 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 携程集团-S | 8.0% | ...