日债连续走低，国债期货大多收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by factors such as the stock market, policy signals from the Politburo meeting, unchanged LPR, Fed rate - cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Index: China's monthly CPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a 2.05 - trillion - yuan increase and 0.47% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a 0.50% increase and 6.25% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a 0.90% increase and 1.83% growth rate [9] - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 98.78, with a 0.23 increase and 0.23% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9586, with a 0.002 decrease and - 0.03% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, with a 0.01 increase and 0.34% growth rate, etc. [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing Price and Fluctuation: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.88 yuan, 108.20 yuan, and 112.25 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.75% [3] - Net Basis Spread: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.014 yuan, - 0.022 yuan, - 0.039 yuan, and - 0.970 yuan respectively [3] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: On January 21, 2026, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2] - Repo Rates: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.322%, 1.488%, 1.597%, and 1.559% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2] IV. Spread Overview - Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads: There are various inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and inter - variety spreads between spot bonds and futures, such as 4TS - T, 2TS - TF, etc. [30][32] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Related Rates: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [41] - Basis Spread: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract are shown [43] VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Related Rates: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TF main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [45] - Basis Spread: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52] VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Related Rates: The relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the T main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [51] - Basis Spread: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are shown [51] VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Related Rates: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TL main contract IRR and the funding rate are presented [56] - Basis Spread: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [61]