燃料油日报：地缘扰动因素仍存，短期趋势尚不明朗-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, mid-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, mid-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran is currently under control, but tensions remain, and short-term oil prices may be repeatedly affected by news, with unclear direction for FU and LU [2] - The current fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. The high-sulfur fuel oil market needs to focus on the drag of the falling crack spread in the US Gulf on the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets and the hedging of downstream refinery demand growth. The Iranian situation and supply are potential variables [2] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market has limited contradictions and drivers. The increased shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria, especially Kuwait's high shipments in January, will bring some local pressure. The support for low-sulfur fuel oil comes from the diversion of components by RFCC units [2] - The current fuel oil market shows a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West. The widening of the East-West price difference will open the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume and potentially suppressing the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.79% at 2,542 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.39% at 3,090 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; mid-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; mid-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]