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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product sector is under pressure due to limited supply - demand improvement. For different products, the market conditions vary, and short - term and long - term trends need to be considered separately [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton. In December 2025, India's textile exports were 1.77 billion US dollars, down 1.62% year - on - year, while clothing exports increased to 1.504 billion US dollars, up 2.89% year - on - year. The total textile and clothing exports in December 2025 increased slightly by 0.40% to 3.274 billion US dollars. From April to December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 26.531 billion US dollars, slightly down 0.26% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the large - scale listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak, so short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the downward space is limited. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton season had a significant increase in production, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, downstream orders are weak, and the industrial chain inventory, especially the grey fabric inventory, has increased significantly. The annual supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - The strategy for cotton is neutral. In the short term, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] 3.2 Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (0.75%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,195 yuan/ton, unchanged. In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, up 26.6% from the same period in 2024. From April to December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative yield was 74.7 tons/hectare, down 4.6% from the same period in the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. In the short - term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar, but the global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season suppresses the market. In the long - term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi are fully operational, supply is seasonally increasing, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high [4] Strategy - The strategy for sugar is neutral. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, the domestic inventory pressure may not have peaked, and there is a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the sugar price should be treated with an idea of oscillating and bottom - building [6] 3.3 Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,000 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly organized. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation, the terminal effective demand was insufficient, and the raw material procurement of downstream paper mills was cautious, resulting in a long - term high inventory in domestic ports [7] Strategy - The strategy for pulp is neutral. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and the foreign - exchange price has increased, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]