中观景气1月第3期：AI硬件景气强化，科技制造出海延续

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs has increased by 2.4% week-on-week, driven by improved winter demand, with the current price at 13.03 yuan/kg as of January 18 [8] - The retail sales of passenger cars have significantly declined, with a year-on-year drop of 32% for the period from January 1 to January 11, 2026, primarily due to high base effects from early 2025 and the phasing out of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [20] - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.5% in transaction area for commercial housing across 30 major cities as of January 18 [19] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The AI hardware sector remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 38.5% in PCB exports in December 2025, and significant price increases in DRAM memory, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices rising by 8.3% and 10.1% respectively [23][24] - The construction materials sector shows slight improvements, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increasing by 1.2% and 1.5% week-on-week as of January 16, 2026 [28] - The automotive manufacturing sector is experiencing a rebound in production rates, with a 7.6% increase in half-steel tire production and a 4.9% increase in full-steel tire production as of January 15 [40] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, attributed to relatively high temperatures and a slower increase in daily consumption by power plants, with the current price at 557 yuan/ton as of January 16 [49] - Industrial metal prices have slightly adjusted, with copper and aluminum prices down by 0.6% and 1.7% respectively, reflecting ongoing supply disruptions and high prices impacting downstream demand [53] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger transport demand is showing marginal growth, with metro passenger volume in major cities increasing by 2.2% week-on-week and 2.8% year-on-year as of January 18 [60] - International flight operations have seen a week-on-week increase of 4.8%, recovering to 85.6% of the levels seen in 2019, while domestic flights have decreased by 8.7% year-on-year [62]