Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-22 06:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [8][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved its annual growth guidance across all brands, with strong organic growth in its outdoor brand. The overall revenue for FY2023 is projected to be RMB 623.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16% [7][8]. - The main brand, Anta, experienced a slight decline in retail sales in Q4 2025, primarily due to weaker performance in the children's segment and online sales. However, FILA brand showed better-than-expected growth, and other brands continued to perform strongly [8][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio and stable discount rates, with a focus on brand strength, product innovation, and retail capabilities for future growth [8][19]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024, FY2025E, FY2026E, and FY2027E are RMB 708.3 billion, RMB 799.8 billion, RMB 896.5 billion, and RMB 970.0 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14%, 13%, 12%, and 8% [7][19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 102.4 billion for FY2023, increasing to RMB 156.0 billion in FY2024, but expected to decline to RMB 132.0 billion in FY2025E before recovering to RMB 140.0 billion in FY2026E and RMB 157.4 billion in FY2027E [7][19]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 3.61 for FY2023, increasing to RMB 5.41 in FY2024, and then fluctuating around RMB 4.60 to RMB 5.48 in the following years [7][19]. Brand Performance - Anta brand is expected to achieve low single-digit growth, while FILA is projected to continue its upward trend with mid-single-digit growth. Other brands are anticipated to grow by over 40% [8][19]. - The company plans to increase marketing and product investments in 2026, which may lead to temporary fluctuations in profit margins due to the competitive retail environment [8][19]. Market Position - The company has a unique multi-brand matrix that provides significant growth potential, and it remains optimistic about future developments despite challenges in the retail market [8][19].