光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月22日）-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to experience an oscillatory trend. Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and production issues are the main drivers of these price movements [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the price center of oil prices moved slightly higher. WTI's new March contract closed up $0.26 to $60.62 per barrel, a 0.43% increase; Brent's March contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; SC2603 closed at 446.5 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.2% increase. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended, and API data showed an increase in US crude and product inventories. Trump's decision on tariffs and ongoing geopolitical games will keep oil prices oscillating [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient in January, while downstream demand provides some support. High - sulfur fuel oil may face more supply from Venezuela. The absolute prices of FU and LU will likely follow oil price fluctuations, with FU having higher volatility [2]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up 0.45% at 3157 yuan per ton. Social and refinery inventory rates increased, and the plant operating rate rose. Market concerns about raw materials eased slightly, but the Iranian situation still affects prices. The asphalt market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectations" [2]. - Polyester: TA605 and EG2605 closed higher on the previous day, while PX futures closed lower. PX supply is shrinking due to plant maintenance, and TA is expected to follow raw material prices. EG is expected to trade in a low - level oscillation due to ample supply and falling downstream demand [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Overseas production is nearing the end of the peak season, tire companies are restocking, and inventories are seasonally increasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions were reported. Domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and Iranian supply remains low. Zhejiang Xingxing's shutdown weakened MTO operating loads. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, prices and production margins of different polyolefins were reported. In January, there were some temporary shutdowns in upstream plants, and demand recovered in the early part of the month but will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. Polyolefins are expected to trade at the bottom [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and many others [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump decided not to implement the planned tariffs on eight European countries after reaching a framework agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended due to power distribution and equipment issues, and the suspension may last for seven to ten days [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents line charts showing the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 - 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Line charts display the historical basis of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [29][30][35]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts show the historical spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][47][50]. 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - Charts illustrate the historical spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the historical production profits or processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [66][68]. 3.5 Team Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, with their respective backgrounds and achievements introduced [71][72][73]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76].