碳酸锂日报（2026年1月22日）-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 21, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose to 166,740 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 158,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 155,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 4,500 yuan/ton to 151,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 975 tons to 28,656 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, the output of lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, the output of lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and the output of lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 20 tons to 2,435 tons. It is expected that the lithium carbonate output in January 2026 will decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. In terms of demand, the output of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 5% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10% month - on - month to 363,400 tons; the output of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the output of lithium iron power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the output of lithium iron energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, among which the downstream inventory decreased by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, the inventory in other links increased by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [3]. - Due to the dual disturbances of supply and cost at the resource end, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. Without a clear negative feedback in demand, the downstream inventory remains at a relatively low level. In the short term, the price will fluctuate and run strongly. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the amplification of market volatility and the impact of positions [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 166,740 yuan/ton, up 6,240 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 165,080 yuan/ton, up 6,140 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,035 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 15,350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 158,500 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 155,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 151,500 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 156,350 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 143,900 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 16.8 US dollars/kg, up 1.2 US dollars. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 149,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan to - 7,000 yuan. The difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 3,914 yuan to - 33,876.48 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) remained unchanged at 119,150 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) decreased by 50 yuan to 105,250 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) remained unchanged at 98,700 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) decreased by 100 yuan to 119,200 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 2,600 yuan to 193,000 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased by 1,800 yuan to 182,600 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 1,800 yuan to 187,900 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) increased by 1,500 yuan to 205,700 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 1,455 yuan to 55,595 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) increased by 1,450 yuan to 54,045 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 1,410 yuan to 50,470 yuan/ton. The price of lithium manganate (power type) increased by 1,000 yuan to 57,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) increased by 1,000 yuan to 55,000 yuan/ton. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 404,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.526 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at 0.54 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.95 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.357 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.48 yuan/Wh, up 0.01 yuan. The price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.85 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained unchanged at 0.306 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][21][22]. - Precursors and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 29, 2025, to January 15, 2026 [37][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [41][42].