多因素共振，盘面大幅上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - BR has seen a significant rebound in the past two days, with a single - day increase of over 4.5% on January 22, closing at 12,270 yuan/ton. Since late November last year, it has had an upward trend with a gain of over 20% in the past two months. The recent price increase is mainly due to the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. - In the short - term, the BR futures market is supported by butadiene supply expectations and the rotation of commodity funds into the chemical sector, so a long - position strategy is recommended. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to whether the expectations for BR raw materials can be fulfilled, as the degree of fulfillment may lead to different market trends [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Performance - The BR main contract has rebounded sharply in the past two days, closing at 12,270 yuan/ton on January 22 with a single - day increase of over 4.5% [2]. Market Review - The upward trend of BR since late November last year is mainly driven by the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. This expectation comes from two aspects: no new domestic butadiene production capacity is planned in the first half of 2026, while there are new production capacity expansion plans for its downstream industries; in 2026, there will be shutdowns of ethylene cracking production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which will increase overseas demand for domestic butadiene. Additionally, seasonal maintenance of domestic butadiene plants in the second quarter may further tighten supply [4]. - Since butadiene prices bottomed out in late November last year, downstream production profits improved, leading to increased consumption of butadiene and higher spot prices. However, as butadiene prices return above 9,000 yuan/ton, downstream profits are compressed, which may negatively affect butadiene demand. Currently, the high supply and high inventory problems in the butadiene spot market remain unresolved, and the market is mainly driven by expectations [5].