短期沪锌或震荡偏弱

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term Shanghai zinc may fluctuate weakly. The short - term market sentiment weakens, and the downstream gradually shuts down before the Spring Festival, so the demand is difficult to improve substantially. The domestic supply remains low, but the export window closes, and the domestic supply - demand margin weakens, so Shanghai zinc lacks upward momentum. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to wait for the signal of the peak - season demand recovery after the Spring Festival. Later, attention should be paid to the export and the start - up situation of the domestic smelting end [1][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in January was 1200 - 1600 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 49.92 US dollars per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.12 US dollars. Last week, the domestic spot processing fee of zinc concentrate remained at 1300 - 1700 yuan per ton, and the weekly ring was flat; the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate was 33.25 US dollars per dry ton, a weekly decrease of 4.25 US dollars [2] Fundamental Changes - Supply - In December, the refined zinc output was 552,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. The annual refined zinc output was 6.8336 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.37%. Some domestic mines stopped production in winter, the output of domestic zinc concentrate decreased month - on - month, and the supplement of imported ore was limited. The profit of smelting enterprises without by - products was deeply in deficit, and some enterprises cut production passively. In January, many smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and other regions started regular maintenance plans, involving a capacity of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons. The overall maintenance scale was larger than the resumption scale, and the start - up rate decreased. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 8700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London ratio improved slightly, the refined zinc export profit window closed, and the import loss narrowed [3] Fundamental Changes - Consumption - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of new construction and construction areas in the real estate industry were still negative, and the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales decreased. Last week, the start - up rate of the galvanizing industry was about 54.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.41 percentage points, but significantly lower than the high point in December 2025. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy dropped to 49.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, at a six - month low; the start - up rate of zinc oxide was 57.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 percentage points. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the approaching Spring Festival in the northern region, some enterprises had early holidays, and the start - up rate dropped to 40 - 50%. The southern region was relatively stable, but the overall orders were insufficient. Affected by the relatively high zinc price and weak downstream demand, the procurement willingness of enterprises was low, and the pressure of finished product inventory increased [4] Fundamental Changes - Spot and Inventory - As of the week of January 21, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,200 yuan per ton. The spot price gradually declined this week, and the basis discount of 0 zinc in the Yangtze River spot to the main contract widened to - 150 yuan. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - 40.12 US dollars. As of the week of January 21, the LME inventory was 111,800 tons. The LME inventory continued to rise, and the current inventory had climbed to the average level in recent years. In China, the decline of zinc inventory stopped. As of January 19, the domestic social inventory was 112,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, above the average level in recent years. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,311 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2459 tons [6]