光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,779 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual regions continuing to decline. Urea supply fluctuated slightly, and there may be a seasonal increase in the future. Demand was relatively weak and differentiated. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 4.07% this week. The futures market is expected to show a range - bound trend in the short term, supported by pre - holiday stocking demand, but trading activity will decline as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,163 yuan/ton, down 1.61%. The spot factory quotes were stable, while traders' quotes fluctuated with market sentiment. The supply of soda ash increased, and demand sentiment declined, increasing market pressure. The futures price is expected to continue the range - bound trend, and attention should be paid to the purchasing power of middle and downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [2]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the glass futures price continued to decline, and the closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,039 yuan/ton, down 2.35%. The spot price weakened again. Glass supply remained stable, and demand was acceptable, with the sales - to - production ratio in most mainstream regions above 100%. However, the demand is expected to be suppressed as deep - processing enterprises shut down for the holiday, and manufacturers may face inventory accumulation. There may be a short - term rebound opportunity supported by pre - holiday stocking [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Urea - On January 21, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 13,340, a decrease of 15 from the previous trading day, with 100 valid forecasts [5]. - On January 21, the daily output of the urea industry was 205,100 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 157,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 87.10%, up 2.52 percentage points year - on - year [5]. - On January 21, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Shandong and Hebei remaining flat, and prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [6]. - On January 21, the inventory of urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 40,100 tons, or 4.07% [7]. - Soda Ash & Glass - On January 21, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 222, a decrease of 2,210 from the previous trading day, with 2,047 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 533, a decrease of 1,205 from the previous trading day [9]. - On January 21, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were reported, showing regional differences [9]. - On January 21, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.66%, up from 84.94% the previous working day [10]. - On January 21, the average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 150,700 tons, remaining stable compared with the previous day [10]. Chart Analysis The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures, providing visual data for market analysis [12][14][16][20][22][24]. Research Team Introduction The research team of the report consists of Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [27].