GF SECURITIES·2026-01-22 09:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 28.76 and a fair value of HKD 48.16 [8]. Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in sales, ranking among the top three in the industry, with a focus on increasing investment efforts [9]. - Rental income from shopping centers has shown double-digit growth, indicating robust performance in the investment property segment [25]. - The company is expected to achieve a core net profit of CNY 21 billion in 2025, with a projected growth trajectory for the following years [8]. Summary by Sections Development Business - In 2025, the company achieved sales of CNY 233.6 billion, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 9.23 million square meters, down 18.6% [9]. - The average sales price increased by 10% to CNY 25,000 per square meter [9]. - The company secured land in 18 cities with a total investment of CNY 91.6 billion, up 18% year-on-year, and an equity land acquisition amount of CNY 68.3 billion, up 30% [19][14]. Regular Business - The total rental income for 2025 is projected at CNY 329.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [34]. - The company’s shopping centers saw a rental income increase of 9.9% in the first half of 2025, driven by a 36% increase in foot traffic [25]. - Overall regular income for the year is expected to reach CNY 512 billion, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [40]. Performance Forecast - The core net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 21 billion, with expectations of CNY 23.2 billion and CNY 25.6 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. - The company’s performance structure is improving, with non-development core net profit expected to account for 56% of total profits in 2025 [8].