华润万象生活（01209）：购物中心表现亮眼，规模与质量并行

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited (01209.HK) with a current price of HKD 43.44 and a fair value of HKD 48.72 [6][33]. Core Insights - The shopping center segment shows strong performance, with both scale and quality being emphasized. The company is expected to experience significant growth in its commercial operations, particularly in shopping centers, which are projected to drive revenue growth [2][33]. - The company is entering a critical development phase over the next five years, focusing on both expansion and high-quality service delivery. This includes a strategy to enhance customer flow and membership engagement [33]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 14,767 million - 2024A: RMB 17,043 million (22.9% growth) - 2025E: RMB 18,026 million (5.8% growth) - 2026E: RMB 19,218 million (6.6% growth) - 2027E: RMB 20,434 million (6.3% growth) [3][14]. - EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 4,304 million in 2023A to RMB 6,985 million in 2027E [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2,929 million in 2023A to RMB 4,824 million in 2027E, with a growth rate of 32.8% in 2023A and 10.6% in 2027E [3][14]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue is segmented into commercial and property channels: - Commercial channel revenue is projected to grow significantly, with shopping center revenue expected to increase by 16.5% in 2025, 14.0% in 2026, and 14.0% in 2027 [14][21]. - Property channel revenue is expected to grow at a slower pace, with community space revenue projected to decline by 2% in 2025, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [21][22]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin is expected to improve from 35.6% in 2025 to 37.9% in 2027, driven by enhanced profitability in the commercial segment [22][24]. - The core net profit margin is projected to rise from 21.7% in 2025 to 23.5% in 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [30][32]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing scale and quality in the company's growth strategy, with a focus on expanding its commercial footprint while maintaining high service standards [33]. - The fair value assessment is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23x, reflecting the company's historical performance and future growth potential [33].