银河期货沥青日报-20260122

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased, and the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data 1. Futures Prices and Positions - BU2603 (main contract) price rose from 3157 to 3242, an increase of 85 or 2.69%. BU2604 rose from 3170 to 3246, an increase of 76 or 2.40%. BU2605 rose from 3093 to 3247, an increase of 154 or 4.98%. SC2603 rose from 440.8 to 446.4, an increase of 5.6 or 1.27%. Brent first - line rose from 63.65 to 64.46, an increase of 0.8 or 1.27% [2] - The main contract's position increased from 18.7 million lots to 20.3 million lots, an increase of 1.6 million lots or 8.49%. The main contract's trading volume increased from 14.9 million lots to 30.0 million lots, an increase of 15.1 million lots or 101.87%. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 45,820 tons [2] 2. Basis and Calendar Spread - BU04 - 05 decreased from 77 to - 1, a decrease of 78 or 101.30%. BU04 - 03 increased from - 13 to - 4, an increase of 9 or - 130.77%. The Shandong - main contract basis decreased from 30 to - 36, a decrease of 66 or 220.00%. The East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20 to - 96, a decrease of 76 or 580.00%. The South China - main contract basis decreased from 10 to - 66, a decrease of 76 or 760.00% [2] 3. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price rose from 3070 to 3080, an increase of 10 or 0.33%. The East China and South China market prices remained unchanged at 3150 and 3180 respectively. Shandong gasoline rose from 6976 to 6983, an increase of 7 or 0.10%. Shandong diesel rose from 5662 to 5676, an increase of 14 or 0.25%. Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged at 2890. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate mid - price rose slightly by 0.01% [2] 4. Spread and Profit - The asphalt refinery profit decreased from 7.21 to - 20.72, a decrease of 27.94 or 387.22%. The refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from 26.22 to - 3.90, a decrease of 30.12 or 114.89%. The BU - SC crack spread increased from - 412.53 to - 386.15, an increase of 26.38 or 6.39%. The gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased from 720.16 to 683.58, a decrease of 36.58 or 5.08%. The diesel spot - Brent spread decreased from 247.33 to 216.94, a decrease of 30.39 or 12.29% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis 1. Market Overview - On January 22, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3243 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous day. The higher asphalt futures boosted the market sentiment. Traders in Shandong raised their selling prices. In the South, the main refineries had stable shipments and lower inventory levels, supporting the stable prices of the main asphalt products. Some social warehouses in South China and East China slightly raised their selling prices [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt rose 10 to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the weak terminal demand limited the price increase [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries' shipments by ship were good, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. However, the cold weather affected the demand, and the social warehouse shipments were average. The Zhenjiang warehouse price was slightly raised by 20 to about 3170 yuan/ton [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3110 - 3150 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the futures price boosted the market sentiment, but most downstream users were cautious, and the high - price resource transactions were average. The local main refineries will keep low production and low inventory, so the mainstream transaction price will remain stable in the short term [6] 2. Market Outlook - The discount of Venezuelan oil raw materials has risen in the market quotation but there has been no real transaction. The impact of Venezuelan oil prices on the market has been gradually digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The asphalt is in a high - level shock. With the Iranian situation fluctuating and geopolitical risks expanding, unilateral risks should be noted. In the off - season at the beginning of the year, the weekly supply and demand decreased simultaneously, and the industrial chain inventory remained low. The spot price was relatively firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The report provides several figures including BU main contract closing price, BU main contract position, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel prices, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9]