铁合金日报-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 22, 2026, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5610, up 0.97% with a decrease of 11,689 lots in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5814, up 0.48% with an increase of 23,782 lots in positions [5]. - For SF, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 22nd, rising 20 - 30 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply side's operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in the future due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi. Steel production is stable, supporting raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas is stable with a slight downward trend, but there is an upward adjustment expectation in some areas. SF's valuation is not high and can be a long - position variety on dips [5]. - For SM, the manganese ore spot price was stable with a slight downward trend on the 22nd, with Australian and Gabonese blocks in Tianjin Port falling 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The SM spot price rose 20 yuan/ton in some regions. The supply side's operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but new production capacity is being put into operation, and the overall supply is stable. Steel production is stable, supporting short - term raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continues to decline, the port spot price is slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continue to rise. SM's valuation is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can be a long - position variety on dips [5]. - Trading strategies: Hold previous long positions, and continue to take long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures: The SF main contract closed at 5610, up 54 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week, with a trading volume of 108,864 (down 21,998 from the previous day) and an open interest of 244,000 (down 11,689 from the previous day). The SM main contract closed at 5814, up 28 from the previous day and down 56 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 141,601 (up 6,241 from the previous day) and an open interest of 356,074 (up 23,782 from the previous day) [3]. - Spot: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5370, up 20 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5350, up 30 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5650, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5800, up 20 from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5680, unchanged from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5570, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; in Guangxi, it was 5750, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5670, up 20 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week [3]. - Basis/Spread: For SF, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 240, down 34 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 260, down 24 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Qinghai - main contract basis was - 310, down 54 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 280, down 20 from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week. For SM, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 134, down 28 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 244, down 28 from the previous day and down 4 from the previous week; the Guangxi - main contract basis was - 64, down 28 from the previous day and down 44 from the previous week; the Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 70, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week. The SF - SM spread was - 204, up 26 from the previous day and up 56 from the previous week [3]. - Raw Materials: The price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Tianjin Port was 41.6, down 0.1 from the previous day and down 0.4 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.3 from the previous week; Gabonese blocks were 42.7, down 0.1 from the previous day and down 0.8 from the previous week. The price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi was 770, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 840, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 750, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - Trading Strategies: Hold previous long positions, continue to take long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - Important Information: On the 22nd, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port with Mn36.48% and Fe5.47% was 36 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron with Mn28% and Fe20% and a particle size of 10 - 100mm was 30.5 yuan/ton - degree, low - grade semi - carbonate with Mn32.23% was 32 yuan/ton - degree, and Australian blocks with Mn42.2% were 41.7 yuan/ton - degree. In December 2025, China's rebar production was 1.3559 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%; the cumulative production from January to December was 18.6308 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - month spread of SF and SM, the basis of SF and SM, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of SF and SM [8][10][14][16][18][19].