燃料油日报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The US's attitude towards Iran's strikes is inconsistent. In the short term, the export and production of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be continuously disrupted by US strategies, leading to increased unilateral fluctuations in fuel oil. The fundamental outlook for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weakly stable in the first quarter. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the near term is increasing month - on - month, with supply in major regions expected to recover [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs First Part: Related Data - On January 22, 2026, the FU main contract was 2592, up 50 from the previous day; the LU main contract was 3135, up 45 from the previous day. The FU main contract's open interest was 18.5 million lots, down 0.7 million lots from the previous day, and the LU main contract's open interest was 5.7 million lots, down 0.7 million lots from the previous day. The FU warehouse receipts were 66550 tons, down 8000 tons from the previous day, and the LU warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13000 tons [3]. - The FU5 - 9 spread was 37, up 8 from the previous day; the LU3 - 4 spread was - 3, down 9 from the previous day; the LU - FU main contract spread was 543, down 5 from the previous day; the FU05 - foreign market 04 spread was 10.6, down 0.8 from the previous day; the LU03 - foreign market 02 spread was 14.8, up 0.7 from the previous day [3]. Second Part: Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Feb/Mar monthly spread remained at 7.75 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Feb/Mar monthly spread rose 0.50 to 1.00 US dollars/ton [5]. Important News - Russia reported that Ukrainian drones attacked a Black Sea port on Wednesday night, causing four fuel terminals to catch fire and two people to die [6]. Market Judgment - The US's inconsistent attitude towards Iran's strikes will disrupt short - term crude oil and fuel oil exports and production. High - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be weakly stable in Q1. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of January 15 were about 650,000 tons, up from the previous two weeks. Mexico's high - sulfur exports are rising. Iran's fuel oil exports have been low since 2025. In terms of demand, the economic efficiency of high - sulfur feedstock is average, weakening the support. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, with Al - Zour refinery's units back, Dangote refinery's exports stable at a high level, and new supplies from South Sudan [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the Singapore high - sulfur crack spread, low - sulfur crack spread, gasoline crack spread, 10ppm diesel crack spread, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10][14][16].